Investobot
Software to manage risk in leveraged index tracking ETFs
It's difficult to beat the S&P 500. So if you can't beat them, join them.
Leverage makes sense when the market is up and can be disastrous in a downturn. Investobot holds the S&P 500 through leveraged index funds, adds exposure while the market is above trend, and cuts it when trend or volatility breaks.
More of the market when it's working. Less when it isn't.
Deterministic rules, easy to follow. Your account, on your machine.
Hypothetical growth of $100,000, 2006 to 2026, log scale
Simulated, not traded. These 20 years include 2008 but miss 1929, 1973 and 2000; the figures below cover every market since 1928. The rule was chosen on this same history, which flatters the result. Fund costs included, taxes excluded.
Tested on market data back to 1928, every setting finished ahead of the S&P, and the Balanced setting did it with a smaller worst drop. You run it yourself, for a flat yearly fee.
Questions? Call.
John Evans · +1 904 612 0239 · jakepevans@gmail.com
Three settings, 20-year hold, $100,000 start
| Setting | Worst 5% of paths, per year | Typical, per year | Best 5% of paths, per year | Ending value, worst 5% | Ending value, typical | Chance of a 50% drop | Chance of a 75% drop | Worst drop, 1928 on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SteadyHalf S&P held, half 2x rule | 3.3% | 12.2% | 21.7% | $193k | $1.0M | 34% | 3% | −76% |
| Balanced2x rule | 3.9% | 13.7% | 24.5% | $215k | $1.3M | 39% | 2% | −71% |
| Aggressive3x rule | 3.1% | 17.5% | 34.1% | $186k | $2.5M | 85% | 16% | −84% |
| S&P heldFor comparison | 1.8% | 9.9% | 17.0% | $142k | $663k | 45% | 7% | −84% |
Hypothetical, before tax, with estimated fund costs. 1,000 simulated paths built by resampling daily US market returns since 1926.
The rule
- Step out when the S&P closes below its 150-day average, or 20-day volatility rises above 25%.
- While out, hold half S&P and half T-bills.
- Step back in after 3 closes in a row above the 100-day exponential average.
Trades happen at the close after the signal, about 5 times a year. You can read every line of the code.
How it runs and what you pay
- Runs on a VPS you rent, connected to your brokerage account with your own keys.
- You pick the setting and can switch it off at any time.
- We keep no access after setup.
- [Annual fee] a year, flat, for software support and running your VPS. You also pay your broker, and the funds charge about 0.9% a year.
What can go wrong
- Day-to-day swings run larger than the S&P on every setting. Aggressive will probably lose more than half at some point.
- Crashes can move faster than the rule. One bad day can cost a third or more at 3x.
- The edge depends on market trends lasting. In simulated markets with the trends removed, switching rules lost to holding the S&P.
- With T-bills at 6%, typical Aggressive falls to 13.5% and its worst 5% to 0.9%.
- The future can be worse than anything in the record.
Taxes
Switching realizes gains, so the account type matters. Typical Aggressive return after federal tax:
- IRA or Roth: 18.2% a year
- Taxable, S&P held plus index futures: 16.7%
- Taxable, leveraged funds: 15.3%
Assumes 24% ordinary and 15% long-term rates, no state tax. Talk to a tax professional.
This page describes software. It is not investment, tax or legal advice or a recommendation to buy any security. Leveraged funds reset daily and can lose most of their value. All figures are hypothetical, come from simulations with the benefit of hindsight, and do not reflect actual trading. No account has traded these rules and no one has earned these returns. Simulations cannot capture every cost, including slippage, tax on dividends and fund changes. Past market behavior does not predict future results. You can lose most of your investment. "S&P 500" is a trademark of its owner, and this product has no connection to it.
Investobot · © John Evans 2026